Win or go home: Updating the AFC Playoff picture

Mike Pettine didn't need to see the updated standings within minutes of the Browns' loss Sunday to the Indianapolis Colts.

The Cleveland coach knew what was at stake as he eyed the final three games of his first regular season with the franchise.

"We know our margin for error is now zero," Pettine said of the 7-6 Browns. "We've got to win our last three or we're done."

Maybe, somehow, the Browns can sneak into the playoffs with a 9-7 record, but that would require a whole lot of help. Cleveland isn't guaranteed anything, but it'll be in a much more favorable position if it can be 10-6 when the field is finalized.

Here's where it all stands with three weeks to go.

CLEVELAND

Dec. 14 - Cincinnati (8-4-1)

Dec. 21 - at Carolina (4-8-1)

Dec. 28 - at Baltimore (8-5)

Reasons for optimism: Even without two of its stars (Karlos Dansby and Tashaun Gipson), the Browns defense is playing its best football of the season. Both Dansby and Gipson are expected back before the regular season ends. If the offense steps it up just a little with Duke Johnson Jr. at quarterback, the Browns will be very tough to beat.

Reasons for pessimism: Cleveland squandered a major opportunity to position itself better when it came up one point short against the Colts on Sunday to lose for the third time in its past four games. The running game hasn't been the same since center Alex Mack's injury and the passing game has been "sub-standard," Pettine said.

Watch: 2 Minute Drill - Moving Forward From The Loss

CINCINNATI

Dec. 14 - at Cleveland (7-6)

Dec. 22 - Denver (10-3)

Dec. 28 - at Pittsburgh (8-5)

Reasons for optimism: When the Bengals play poorly, they look like one of the worst teams in the league, yet here they are atop the North with three games to play. Cincinnati plays with a lot of confidence and poise on the road, where it's won three consecutive games.

Reasons for pessimism: Perhaps no one has a tougher three-game stretch to end the season than the Bengals, who haven't exactly played their best football in the past three games, either. It might be hard to get over what happened in Sunday's fourth quarter at Pittsburgh.

PITTSBURGH

Dec. 14 - at Atlanta (5-8)

Dec. 21 - Kansas City (7-6)

Dec. 28 - Cincinnati (8-4-1)

Reasons for optimism: The Big Three of Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown gives the Steelers one of the NFL's most dangerous offenses heading into the home stretch of the season. After a winnable game against Atlanta, which will have one fewer day of rest, the Steelers close out the season at Heinz Field.

Reasons for pessimism: It's hard to find a team that's been more Jekyll and Hyde than the Steelers. One week, they're scoring 51 on the Colts; the next, they're losing, 20-13, to the New York Jets. Pittsburgh's defense isn't what it used to be, as it's needed all the help it can get from the offense in a number of its wins.

BALTIMORE

Dec. 14 - Jacksonville (2-11)

Dec. 21 - at Houston (7-6)

Dec. 28 - Cleveland (7-6)

Reasons for optimism: Of the teams still in the hunt, no one's three-game stretch of opponents boasts fewer wins than the Ravens'. This is quarterback Joe Flacco's money time, and the same can be said for the defense, which has been a bit up and down but still has held its foes to 13 points or fewer five times this season.

Reasons for pessimism: All five of the Ravens' losses have come against teams in the AFC playoff race. Because of all of the tiebreakers that could work against them, the Ravens probably will need to win out to feel safe.

SAN DIEGO

Dec. 14 - Denver (10-3)

Dec. 20 - at San Francisco (7-6)

Dec 28 - at Kansas City (7-6)

Reasons for optimism: The Chargers are certainly battle-tested and comfortable in close games, as their past four wins have been by a touchdown or fewer. The return of starting RB Ryan Mathews could pay off big down the stretch.

Reasons for pessimism: Record-wise, the Chargers' schedule differs little from the rest of the group, but the circumstances surrounding each game make it one of the toughest. The Broncos are the Broncos, the 49ers are clinging to their playoff lives and Arrowhead Stadium remains one of the toughest places to play in the NFL.

HOUSTON

Dec. 14 - at Indianapolis (9-4)

Dec. 21 - Baltimore (8-5)

Dec. 28 - Jacksonville (2-11)

Reasons for optimism: The Texans are certainly trending in the right direction at the perfect time. Winners of three of their last four, they've benefitted from a strong return from Ryan Fitzpatrick, one of the NFL's best rushing attacks and, of course, J.J. Watt doing J.J. Watt things.

Reasons for pessimism: The Texans have never won at Lucas Oil Stadium. To get where they want to be, they'll have to finish the season with wins in six of their last seven games. That's a tall task for a team that had the No. 1 pick in the 2014 NFL Draft.

MIAMI

Dec. 14 - at New England (10-3)

Dec. 21 - Minnesota (6-7)

Dec. 28 - New York Jets (2-11)

Reasons for optimism: If the Dolphins can rebound and upset the Patriots, their path to the playoffs suddenly becomes one of the easiest. That's a big if, but it's something Miami did with relative ease in the season opener. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill continues to improve and has been much more careful with the football this season.

Reasons for pessimism: The Dolphins have lost two of their last three and have seen their offense score a combined 19 points in the past two games. After storming out to a 10-0 lead on its home field Sunday, Miami wilted against the Ravens and were outscored, 28-3, in the final three quarters.

KANSAS CITY

Dec. 14 - Oakland (2-11)

Dec. 21 - at Pittsburgh (8-5)

Dec. 28 - San Diego (8-5)

Reasons for optimism: The Chiefs boast solid victories over four of the AFC's playoff contenders as well as the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. When they're on, they're on. That kind of Chiefs team is certainly capable of winning its next two and setting up a potential win-or-go-home regular season finale with the Chargers.

Reasons for pessimism: The Chiefs are the only team in this group with three straight losses. The last one, a 17-14 setback at Arizona, was particularly back-breaking and left the Chiefs questioning multiple calls. The focus needs to shift back to the field in a hurry.

BUFFALO

Dec. 14 - Green Bay (10-3)

Dec. 21 - at Oakland (2-11)

Dec. 28 - at New England (10-3)

Reasons for optimism: The Bills' defense is good enough to keep the team within striking distance no matter the opponent. Ralph Wilson Stadium is a tough place to play in December, and the Packers will be making the trip after playing a full 60 minutes Monday against the Falcons.

Reasons for pessimism: When the Bills aren't playing the Jets, their offense typically doesn't do enough to ever fully pay back the defense. The Bills have failed to score 20 or more points in seven of their 13 games.